NMDC has cut its prices by 36% in May-June 2022 on imposition of export duty and we expect further weakness given a 20% correction in seaborne iron ore prices in the past one month. Sales volumes have significantly contracted in Q1FY23, led by destocking by consumers, and are likely to recover in H2FY23E. We believe the recent stock underperformance captures the sharp margin fall from Q2FY23E onwards. We trim earnings, FV to Rs 105 (from Rs 110) and revise rating to Reduce (from Sell). Prices likely to remain under pressure despite sharp price cuts in June 2022: In May-June 2022, …
